Найти книгу: "The Certainty of Uncertainty"

The world is full of people who are very certain–in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life's problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good?
The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist.
As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it's beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.

The all-encompassing framework for achieving the life of your dreams It All Matters presents a framework for the rest of your life. What are those dreams you would only dare to dream if there was no possibility of failure? How can you live a life of real intention and purpose instead of duty and obligation? This book answers these questions and more. Everyone has the capacity to author their own destiny; it's not our circumstances that shape our lives, it's our response to those circumstances that either propels us to great heights or keeps us stuck in the mud. Here, author Paul Cummings shares one of the most comprehensive goal setting systems ever put into print. Based on the key U.B.U. process—Understand who you are, Be true to yourself, and always be Unique—this framework gives you the power to transform your life. Through a fast-moving series of engaging stories, you'll learn how to question yourself to greatness as you begin to think in bigger and more positive terms. Professionals from across the globe have implemented this framework to achieve what they truly wanted out of life—isn't it your turn? This enlightening guide teaches you the revolutionary strategies that can help you make big things happen. Dig deep to find your real dreams, and set a plan to achieve them Discover the core principles the form the foundation for success Learn the art of self-questioning as a motivational tool Implement a comprehensive, proven system for getting what you want You are one great question away from everything you ardently desire at all times. Are you ready to take the leap? It All Matters shifts your perspective to let you see the shining path ahead.

An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify «Black Swans» and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

From the CEO of Umpqua Bank, the essential leadership practices that allowed the West Coast’s largest independent community bank to emerge from the economic crisis even stronger than before In this follow-up to the successful Leading for Growth, Umpqua Bank CEO Ray Davis shares the tactics and strategies that have allowed Umpqua to grow and succeed in the toughest economic environment. The results are clear: despite years of economic uncertainty, Umpqua has continued its upward trajectory—expanding from five locations in 1994 to more than 200 today. Davis’s approach can help leaders recalibrate their approaches, no matter what the industry or market upheaval they face. In Leading Through Uncertainty, Davis shares a concise set of smart, actionable leadership practices that leaders can use to navigate their businesses and teams through difficult times. These include focusing on honesty and transparency, motivating and inspiring employees, building an outstanding corporate reputation, paying attention to details, and more. By showing leaders how to maintain a clear value proposition and strong leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty will help any company secure a lasting foothold in any economy.