Найти книгу: "Burying Uncertainty"


Burying Uncertainty Burying Uncertainty

Автор: K. S. Shrader-Frechette

Год издания: 0000

An Humble Proposal to the People of England, for the Increase of their Trade, and Encouragement of Their Manufactures. Whether the Present Uncertainty of Affairs Issues in Peace or War An Humble Proposal to the People of England, for the Increase of their Trade, and Encouragement of Their Manufactures. Whether the Present Uncertainty of Affairs Issues in Peace or War

Автор: Даниэль Дефо

Год издания: 


Willful Ignorance. The Mismeasure of Uncertainty Willful Ignorance. The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

Автор: Herbert I. Weisberg, Dr.

Год издания: 

An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty. Creating The Risk Intelligent Enterprise Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty. Creating The Risk Intelligent Enterprise

Автор: Frederick Funston

Год издания: 

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify «Black Swans» and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty

Автор: Jeff Danziger

Год издания: 

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

Leading Through Uncertainty. How Umpqua Bank Emerged from the Great Recession Better and Stronger than Ever Leading Through Uncertainty. How Umpqua Bank Emerged from the Great Recession Better and Stronger than Ever

Автор: Raymond Davis P.

Год издания: 

From the CEO of Umpqua Bank, the essential leadership practices that allowed the West Coast’s largest independent community bank to emerge from the economic crisis even stronger than before In this follow-up to the successful Leading for Growth, Umpqua Bank CEO Ray Davis shares the tactics and strategies that have allowed Umpqua to grow and succeed in the toughest economic environment. The results are clear: despite years of economic uncertainty, Umpqua has continued its upward trajectory—expanding from five locations in 1994 to more than 200 today. Davis’s approach can help leaders recalibrate their approaches, no matter what the industry or market upheaval they face. In Leading Through Uncertainty, Davis shares a concise set of smart, actionable leadership practices that leaders can use to navigate their businesses and teams through difficult times. These include focusing on honesty and transparency, motivating and inspiring employees, building an outstanding corporate reputation, paying attention to details, and more. By showing leaders how to maintain a clear value proposition and strong leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty will help any company secure a lasting foothold in any economy.