Найти книгу: "Bayesian Networks"

Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.

Build a better defense against motivated, organized, professional attacks Advanced Penetration Testing: Hacking the World's Most Secure Networks takes hacking far beyond Kali linux and Metasploit to provide a more complex attack simulation. Featuring techniques not taught in any certification prep or covered by common defensive scanners, this book integrates social engineering, programming, and vulnerability exploits into a multidisciplinary approach for targeting and compromising high security environments. From discovering and creating attack vectors, and moving unseen through a target enterprise, to establishing command and exfiltrating data—even from organizations without a direct Internet connection—this guide contains the crucial techniques that provide a more accurate picture of your system's defense. Custom coding examples use VBA, Windows Scripting Host, C, Java, JavaScript, Flash, and more, with coverage of standard library applications and the use of scanning tools to bypass common defensive measures. Typical penetration testing consists of low-level hackers attacking a system with a list of known vulnerabilities, and defenders preventing those hacks using an equally well-known list of defensive scans. The professional hackers and nation states on the forefront of today's threats operate at a much more complex level—and this book shows you how to defend your high security network. Use targeted social engineering pretexts to create the initial compromise Leave a command and control structure in place for long-term access Escalate privilege and breach networks, operating systems, and trust structures Infiltrate further using harvested credentials while expanding control Today's threats are organized, professionally-run, and very much for-profit. Financial institutions, health care organizations, law enforcement, government agencies, and other high-value targets need to harden their IT infrastructure and human capital against targeted advanced attacks from motivated professionals. Advanced Penetration Testing goes beyond Kali linux and Metasploit and to provide you advanced pen testing for high security networks.

Social media has already transformed society. Now it is poised to revolutionize communications and collaborative business processes. This book provides you with an actionable framework for developing and executing successful enterprise social networking strategies. Using straightforward language, accompanied by exhibits and fleshed out with real-world stories and revealing anecdotes, you will learn how to develop your own internal corporate social media strategy. Through the use of in-depth interviews with leading companies using these strategies, you will also discover best practices that will propel your business to new heights.

Experience the growth multiplier effect through transforming the distribution and sales network Selling Through Someone Else tackles new opportunities to drive company growth by taking a fresh look at the customer smart distribution and sales process. The authors, from Accenture, one of the world's largest consulting companies, explain how companies can be smarter about what their customers truly want and maximize the return on investment from all available resources for growth opportunities by exploring creative distribution options, including leveraging partners, online outlets, iPads/tablets, your traditional sales force, and more. Selling Through Someone Else demonstrates that traditional approaches are no longer effective and how, by capitalizing on converging forces, companies can transform their «sales» approaches to grow revenue, and enhance customer and brand loyalty. Explores how globalization, new competitors, and low-cost threats are reshaping the way sales is happening today, and how to prepare your company to be successful in this new dynamic and iterative selling model Shows how analytics, the shift to digital selling and mobile sales tools, and new approaches to sales operations can reshape the entire sales function Demonstrates how new ecosystems of partners are created, managed, and incented to drive greater sales and profitability Accenture has helped numerous clients collaborate across IT, Sales, and Marketing to dramatically grow distribution and adapt to the different «playing field» of today. Selling through Someone Else applies the trends and lessons learned from Fortune 500 and Global 500 companies to mid-sized enterprises and small-medium businesses owners.

Driving Results Through Social Networks shows executives and managers how to obtain substantial performance and innovation impact by better leveraging these traditionally invisible assets. For the past decade, Rob Cross and Robert J. Thomas have worked closely with executives from over a hundred top-level companies and government agencies. In this groundbreaking book, they describe in-depth how these leaders are using network thinking to increase revenues, lower costs, and accelerate innovation.