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A new, more accurate take on the classical approach to volatility evaluation Inside Volatility Filtering presents a new approach to volatility estimation, using financial econometrics based on a more accurate estimation of the hidden state. Based on the idea of «filtering», this book lays out a two-step framework involving a Chapman-Kolmogorov prior distribution followed by Bayesian posterior distribution to develop a robust estimation based on all available information. This new second edition includes guidance toward basing estimations on historic option prices instead of stocks, as well as Wiener Chaos Expansions and other spectral approaches. The author's statistical trading strategy has been expanded with more in-depth discussion, and the companion website offers new topical insight, additional models, and extra charts that delve into the profitability of applied model calibration. You'll find a more precise approach to the classical time series and financial econometrics evaluation, with expert advice on turning data into profit. Financial markets do not always behave according to a normal bell curve. Skewness creates uncertainty and surprises, and tarnishes trading performance, but it's not going away. This book shows traders how to work with skewness: how to predict it, estimate its impact, and determine whether the data is presenting a warning to stay away or an opportunity for profit. Base volatility estimations on more accurate data Integrate past observation with Bayesian probability Exploit posterior distribution of the hidden state for optimal estimation Boost trade profitability by utilizing «skewness» opportunities Wall Street is constantly searching for volatility assessment methods that will make their models more accurate, but precise handling of skewness is the key to true accuracy. Inside Volatility Filtering shows you a better way to approach non-normal distributions for more accurate volatility estimation.

This book is intended primarily as a handbook for engineers who must design practical systems. Its primary goal is to discuss model development in sufficient detail so that the reader may design an estimator that meets all application requirements and is robust to modeling assumptions. Since it is sometimes difficult to a priori determine the best model structure, use of exploratory data analysis to define model structure is discussed. Methods for deciding on the “best” model are also presented. A second goal is to present little known extensions of least squares estimation or Kalman filtering that provide guidance on model structure and parameters, or make the estimator more robust to changes in real-world behavior. A third goal is discussion of implementation issues that make the estimator more accurate or efficient, or that make it flexible so that model alternatives can be easily compared. The fourth goal is to provide the designer/analyst with guidance in evaluating estimator performance and in determining/correcting problems. The final goal is to provide a subroutine library that simplifies implementation, and flexible general purpose high-level drivers that allow both easy analysis of alternative models and access to extensions of the basic filtering. Supplemental materials and up-to-date errata are downloadable at http://booksupport.wiley.com.

Optimal filtering applied to stationary and non-stationary signals provides the most efficient means of dealing with problems arising from the extraction of noise signals. Moreover, it is a fundamental feature in a range of applications, such as in navigation in aerospace and aeronautics, filter processing in the telecommunications industry, etc. This book provides a comprehensive overview of this area, discussing random and Gaussian vectors, outlining the results necessary for the creation of Wiener and adaptive filters used for stationary signals, as well as examining Kalman filters which are used in relation to non-stationary signals. Exercises with solutions feature in each chapter to demonstrate the practical application of these ideas using MATLAB.

Online learning from a signal processing perspective There is increased interest in kernel learning algorithms in neural networks and a growing need for nonlinear adaptive algorithms in advanced signal processing, communications, and controls. Kernel Adaptive Filtering is the first book to present a comprehensive, unifying introduction to online learning algorithms in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Based on research being conducted in the Computational Neuro-Engineering Laboratory at the University of Florida and in the Cognitive Systems Laboratory at McMaster University, Ontario, Canada, this unique resource elevates the adaptive filtering theory to a new level, presenting a new design methodology of nonlinear adaptive filters. Covers the kernel least mean squares algorithm, kernel affine projection algorithms, the kernel recursive least squares algorithm, the theory of Gaussian process regression, and the extended kernel recursive least squares algorithm Presents a powerful model-selection method called maximum marginal likelihood Addresses the principal bottleneck of kernel adaptive filters—their growing structure Features twelve computer-oriented experiments to reinforce the concepts, with MATLAB codes downloadable from the authors' Web site Concludes each chapter with a summary of the state of the art and potential future directions for original research Kernel Adaptive Filtering is ideal for engineers, computer scientists, and graduate students interested in nonlinear adaptive systems for online applications (applications where the data stream arrives one sample at a time and incremental optimal solutions are desirable). It is also a useful guide for those who look for nonlinear adaptive filtering methodologies to solve practical problems.

In the context of systems and control, incomplete information refers to a dynamical system in which knowledge about the system states is limited due to the difficulties in modelling complexity in a quantitative way. The well-known types of incomplete information include parameter uncertainties and norm-bounded nonlinearities. Recently, in response to the development of network technologies, the phenomenon of randomly occurring incomplete information has become more and more prevalent. Filtering, Control and Fault Detection with Randomly Occurring Incomplete Information reflects the state-of-the-art of the research area for handling randomly occurring incomplete information from three interrelated aspects of control, filtering and fault detection. Recent advances in networked control systems and distributed filtering over sensor networks are covered, and application potential in mobile robotics is also considered. The reader will benefit from the introduction of new concepts, new models and new methodologies with practical significance in control engineering and signal processing. Key Features: Establishes a unified framework for filtering, control and fault detection problem for various discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems with randomly occurring incomplete information Investigates several new concepts for randomly occurring phenomena and proposes a new system model to better describe network-induced problems Demonstrates how newly developed techniques can handle emerging mathematical and computational challenges Contains the latest research results Filtering, Control and Fault Detection with Randomly Occurring Incomplete Information provides a unified yet neat framework for control/filtering/fault-detection with randomly occurring incomplete information. It is a comprehensive textbook for graduate students and is also a useful practical research reference for engineers dealing with control, filtering and fault detection problems for networked systems.